Rhode Island Elections ProjectDistrict 15 candidates →
Experimental · Three-candidate scenario model

What could change District 15?

Start with the last House election, then explore how a Democratic swing and independent support could change the outcome. Crudele, Paplauskas and Fung are modeled together.

Test run, not an official race rating. The 2024 baseline is observed. Fung’s support, where it comes from, national swing and campaign adjustments are assumptions. Default Fung support of 20% and an equal draw from both parties are placeholders—not estimates from polling.

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Build a three-way scenario

Change in Democratic vote share before allocating Fung support. Positive = Democratic gain. A +5-point share shift is a +10-point two-party margin shift. This is a district scenario; no one-for-one national translation is estimated.
Additional Democratic share change from your assessment of candidate appeal and campaign execution. Default zero. Incumbency is already partly reflected in 2024; avoid counting it twice.
Explore limited, substantial or winning independent support. Not a measured support estimate.
The rest is drawn from the Democratic baseline. This is a counterfactual allocation, not proof of individual voter switching. If a party pool is exhausted, the remainder comes from the other pool.
Uniform variation around your assumed share in simulations. Bounds are clipped at 0–100%. This uncertainty range is also an assumption.

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Every simulation totals 100% across the three candidates. The central scenario uses your exact inputs; ranges also include historical two-party variation. Ranges need not sum to 100% because their endpoints occur in different simulations.

Campaign finance: capacity and obligations

Explore cash burn, bills and funding scenarios →

What historical testing tells us

District 15 election history

Earlier results provide context. District boundaries changed for 2022, so pre-2022 D15 results are not averaged into the current baseline. Unopposed results do not measure a contested party preference.

Evidence still missing

Repository research records identify Paplauskas as the incumbent, Crudele as a Democratic challenger and Fung as an independent challenger with prior mayoral service. Those facts do not establish numerical vote bonuses. Endorsements, fundraising and primary votes are not converted directly into general-election votes.

No individual voter turnout or precinct switching is modeled. This first version assumes a fixed electorate and allocates support between existing party pools. Added turnout, abstention and geographic differences require further data.

Source files: RIEP historical legislative returns · Test assumptions & validation records · Original Fung filing. Finance snapshot October 5; test built October 8, 2026. Reproducible seed and build script are in the project’s GitHub repository.