{
  "updated": "2026-10-08",
  "as_of": "2026-10-05",
  "district": 15,
  "title": "District 15 conditional election test",
  "baseline": {
    "year": 2024,
    "dem_share": 0.498729792147806,
    "dem_votes": 4319,
    "rep_votes": 4341,
    "total_major_party_votes": 8660,
    "margin_votes": 22,
    "source": "/data/race_data.json",
    "method": "Carry forward the 2024 Democratic share of Democratic + Republican votes, before any scenario adjustments. Incumbent performance is already embedded; no additional incumbent bonus is applied."
  },
  "defaults": {
    "dem_swing_pp": 0,
    "campaign_adjustment_pp": 0,
    "fung_share_pct": 20,
    "fung_from_republican_pct": 50,
    "fung_uncertainty_pp": 10
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "method": "Resample centered changes in Democratic two-party vote share among eligible adjacent-cycle contested House races through 2020. Perturb assumed Fung support with a uniform \u00b110-point range by default; that range is a user-adjustable assumption, not an estimate.",
    "historical_errors_pp": [
      -23.495499831282544,
      -9.899660029727537,
      0.642655491059546,
      -1.2196120099969399,
      -3.0943069504050125,
      4.607730151241595,
      -9.862214465728291,
      -8.812903103769466,
      3.026499153141593,
      -3.908020834387027,
      2.927380095425658,
      2.0475579729381854,
      -1.4982302110024217,
      11.70762326800172,
      4.513087275838623,
      -1.967208743810711,
      -0.4475891255111998,
      1.2755556379634103,
      3.9153460688934105,
      4.103903386391472,
      10.322461542249172,
      14.164994728528058,
      8.938108374124942,
      6.989503419827219,
      9.502087071862002,
      -11.756129468111515,
      -6.981800897571745,
      7.290842250170515,
      -3.611772841105077,
      6.649168169139885,
      6.452285963010562,
      -10.376531401975514,
      2.8664536553069997,
      -6.869777131854,
      -7.2459359581744,
      1.8500741868406445,
      2.9420480600257926,
      -4.2423051396054685,
      -0.01949683574080663,
      -1.1169165273006487,
      -4.220186431914641,
      3.9107320169939563
    ],
    "training": {
      "n": 42,
      "mae_pp": 5.714449640376925,
      "rmse_pp": 7.3563740367093216,
      "mean_error_pp": -0.9156739679882285
    },
    "holdout_2024": {
      "n": 18,
      "mae_pp": 2.003120162085709,
      "rmse_pp": 2.684418140018535,
      "mean_error_pp": -0.8966620628549862
    },
    "pairs": [
      {
        "before": 2012,
        "after": 2014,
        "district": 28,
        "change_pp": -24.411173799270774
      },
      {
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        "district": 29,
        "change_pp": -10.815333997715765
      },
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        "before": 2012,
        "after": 2014,
        "district": 31,
        "change_pp": -0.27301847692868253
      },
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        "before": 2012,
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        "district": 32,
        "change_pp": -2.1352859779851685
      },
      {
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        "district": 34,
        "change_pp": -4.009980918393241
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        "district": 35,
        "change_pp": 3.692056183253367
      },
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        "district": 39,
        "change_pp": -10.77788843371652
      },
      {
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        "district": 40,
        "change_pp": -9.728577071757694
      },
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        "district": 44,
        "change_pp": 2.1108251851533644
      },
      {
        "before": 2012,
        "after": 2014,
        "district": 72,
        "change_pp": -4.823694802375256
      },
      {
        "before": 2014,
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        "district": 16,
        "change_pp": 2.0117061274374293
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        "district": 28,
        "change_pp": 1.1318840049499568
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        "change_pp": -2.4139041789906504
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      {
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        "change_pp": 3.5974133078503945
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        "change_pp": -2.8828827117989397
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      {
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        "change_pp": -1.3632630934994283
      },
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        "district": 71,
        "change_pp": 0.3598816699751817
      },
      {
        "before": 2014,
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        "district": 72,
        "change_pp": 2.999672100905182
      },
      {
        "before": 2016,
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        "district": 16,
        "change_pp": 3.1882294184032434
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      {
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        "district": 24,
        "change_pp": 9.406787574260944
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      {
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        "district": 28,
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        "change_pp": 8.022434406136714
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        "district": 47,
        "change_pp": -7.897474865559973
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        "before": 2016,
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        "district": 52,
        "change_pp": 6.375168282182287
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        "district": 53,
        "change_pp": -4.5274468090933055
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        "district": 72,
        "change_pp": 5.7334942011516565
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      {
        "before": 2016,
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        "district": 74,
        "change_pp": 5.536611995022334
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      {
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        "district": 15,
        "change_pp": -11.292205369963742
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      {
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        "district": 21,
        "change_pp": 1.950779687318771
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      {
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        "district": 26,
        "change_pp": -7.785451099842228
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      {
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        "district": 28,
        "change_pp": -8.161609926162628
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        "district": 30,
        "change_pp": 0.9344002188524159
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      {
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        "district": 39,
        "change_pp": 2.026374092037564
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      {
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        "change_pp": -5.157979107593697
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      {
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        "change_pp": -0.9351708037290352
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        "district": 53,
        "change_pp": -2.0325904952888774
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      {
        "before": 2018,
        "after": 2020,
        "district": 61,
        "change_pp": -5.135860399902869
      },
      {
        "before": 2018,
        "after": 2020,
        "district": 72,
        "change_pp": 2.9950580490057277
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      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 16,
        "change_pp": 0.5364155307042817
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 21,
        "change_pp": -0.9682765847833563
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 22,
        "change_pp": 0.7925428106867471
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 27,
        "change_pp": 1.4172209385659995
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 28,
        "change_pp": 1.1931864132027126
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 31,
        "change_pp": 0.6210466083400035
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 33,
        "change_pp": -2.2568991810379413
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 34,
        "change_pp": -0.10100269117570004
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      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 35,
        "change_pp": -2.145370406900371
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      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 40,
        "change_pp": -1.861859036700808
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 41,
        "change_pp": 3.3286892162402495
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 42,
        "change_pp": -7.1976674135441066
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 43,
        "change_pp": 1.806847620363139
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 44,
        "change_pp": -0.3408724803376284
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 47,
        "change_pp": -2.4843943775929467
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 53,
        "change_pp": -4.643319098884851
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 61,
        "change_pp": -4.0983787535085465
      },
      {
        "before": 2022,
        "after": 2024,
        "district": 70,
        "change_pp": 0.2621737549733716
      }
    ],
    "excluded_boundary_transition": "2020 to 2022 excluded because district boundaries changed.",
    "limitations": "These checks validate a simple two-party persistence baseline, not the three-candidate model or candidate win probabilities. A sample drawn from contested races is selective. Earlier boundary regimes and candidate changes limit transferability."
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "uncontested": false,
      "winner": "Nicholas A. MATTIELLO",
      "party": "DEM",
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Nicholas A. MATTIELLO",
          "party": "DEM",
          "votes": 3856
        },
        {
          "name": "Robert E. BACH",
          "party": "REP",
          "votes": 2792
        }
      ],
      "two_party_dem_share": 0.5800240673886883,
      "note": "Historical boundaries before 2022; context only."
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "uncontested": true,
      "winner": "Nicholas A. MATTIELLO",
      "party": "DEM",
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Nicholas A. MATTIELLO",
          "party": "DEM",
          "votes": 4187
        }
      ],
      "two_party_dem_share": null,
      "note": "Excluded from baseline: uncontested."
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "uncontested": false,
      "winner": "Nicholas A. Mattiello",
      "party": "DEM",
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Nicholas A. Mattiello",
          "party": "DEM",
          "votes": 3611
        },
        {
          "name": "Steven Frias",
          "party": "REP",
          "votes": 3526
        }
      ],
      "two_party_dem_share": null,
      "note": "Historical boundaries before 2022; context only."
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "uncontested": false,
      "winner": "Nicholas A. Mattiello",
      "party": "DEM",
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Nicholas A. Mattiello",
          "party": "DEM",
          "votes": 3464
        },
        {
          "name": "Steven Frias",
          "party": "REP",
          "votes": 3135
        }
      ],
      "two_party_dem_share": 0.5249280193968783,
      "note": "Historical boundaries before 2022; context only."
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "uncontested": false,
      "winner": "Barbara Ann Fenton -Fung",
      "party": "REP",
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Barbara Ann Fenton -Fung",
          "party": "REP",
          "votes": 4731
        },
        {
          "name": "Nicholas A Mattiello",
          "party": "DEM",
          "votes": 3315
        }
      ],
      "two_party_dem_share": 0.41200596569724085,
      "note": "Historical boundaries before 2022; context only."
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "uncontested": true,
      "winner": "Barbara Ann Fenton Fung",
      "party": "REP",
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Barbara Ann Fenton Fung",
          "party": "REP",
          "votes": 4978
        }
      ],
      "two_party_dem_share": null,
      "note": "Excluded from baseline: uncontested."
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "uncontested": false,
      "winner": "Christopher G. Paplauskas",
      "party": "REP",
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Christopher G. Paplauskas",
          "party": "REP",
          "votes": 4341
        },
        {
          "name": "Maria A. Bucci",
          "party": "DEM",
          "votes": 4319
        }
      ],
      "two_party_dem_share": 0.498729792147806,
      "note": "Current-boundary baseline."
    }
  ],
  "missing_inputs": [
    "No D15 horse-race poll in the model.",
    "No presidential or statewide results reaggregated to current D15 boundaries in the repository.",
    "No measured district-level support or vote-source split for Fung.",
    "No historically estimated finance-to-vote coefficient.",
    "No verified numerical national swing input; default is zero."
  ],
  "candidate_context": [
    {
      "name": "Christopher G Paplauskas",
      "party": "REP",
      "note": "Republican incumbent; 2024 D15 result is the baseline."
    },
    {
      "name": "Colleen M Crudele",
      "party": "DEM",
      "note": "Democratic challenger; 2024 baseline belongs to Maria Bucci, not Crudele."
    },
    {
      "name": "Allan W Fung",
      "party": "IND",
      "note": "Independent challenger. Repository biography records prior service as mayor of Cranston. No personal vote bonus is estimated from that biography."
    }
  ],
  "finance_source": "/data/house_15_finance_model_2026.json",
  "simulation_count": 10000,
  "seed": 1502026
}