State House
75 seats · 38 for a majority- Democrats
- 67+3 projected gains
- Independents
- 1
- Republicans
- 7
Democratic majority projected
All seats assigned a projected party.
28 Days Before Elections Ratings
October 8, 2026 · Published preliminary predictions
Final ratings will be published before Election Day.
Our published preliminary predictions. (Flip) indicates a projected change from the party that won in 2024. Select a district to view the race.
Predicted balance of power
Projected seats from our published ratings. Each seat rated for a party counts toward its total; Toss Ups remain unassigned. Lighter colors show projected gains from the party that won in 2024.
State Senate
38 seats · 20 for a majority- Democrats
- 34
- Independents
- 0
- Republicans
- 3
- Toss Up
- 1
Democratic majority projected
SD 34 remains a Toss Up. The final seat could bring Democrats to 35 or Republicans to 4.
Prediction methodology
These fixed preliminary predictions start with contested 2024 results and use an assumed 7-percentage-point increase in Democratic vote share, equivalent to a 14-point shift in a two-party margin. This assumption is the basis of this edition; visitors cannot adjust the published ratings. The model has not been calibrated to win probabilities and does not use district polling. Published ratings also include RIEP editorial decisions: House 15 is Lean D and Senate 34 is Toss Up. These decisions override the model label without changing its underlying arithmetic.
Rating cutoffs use the leader’s margin: Toss Up under 2 points; Tilt 2–under 5; Lean 5–under 10; Likely 10–under 15; Solid 15 or more. Contested races within 30 points for either party in 2024 remain included; races entering that window under a swing scenario are added. Other seats are listed separately as Safe D, Safe R, or Safe Independent. These are editorial classifications based on the current field and historical winning party, including unopposed seats and races without comparable contested results; no numerical margin is inferred for them.
House 15 holds Fung at an assumed 20%, drawing equally from both major parties. Senate 17 shifts the major-party baseline only; support for its independent candidates is unknown. Senate 19 is a Democratic-versus-independent race, so no automatic D–R swing adjustment is applied. Campaign finance and candidate characteristics remain context rather than separately estimated adjustments.